Risk-neutral probability

Japanese

リスク中立確率

Also known as

Equivalent martingale measure

Last reviewed

September 25, 2026

This is a draft, shown for review before publication.

A risk-neutral probability is a computational probability used to express a derivative's price as a discounted expected payoff, and it is set so that the underlying's expected return equals the risk-free rate. It is separate from the real-world probability that investors forecast.