Market Size Statistics (BIS Surveys)

The figure used to measure the size of the derivatives market differs from the one used to measure counterparty credit risk. The size of the market is measured by the amount outstanding in notional amount, and credit risk by positive market value.

Regular Statistics and the Survey

Derivatives statistics from the BIS and central banks come from two surveys: one that looks only at amounts outstanding every half year, and one that looks at both turnover and amounts outstanding every three years. The first is called the Regular Derivatives Market Statistics (the Regular Statistics), and the second the Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity (the Survey). The table below shows how they differ¹².

The Regular Statistics are statistics on amounts outstanding of OTC derivatives (over-the-counter derivatives), compiled from the end-June 1998 data onward³. The participants are a limited number of institutions, such as banks and securities firms headquartered in major developed countries that also do business abroad⁴. From Japan, 16 major dealers take part, including banks, trust banks, and securities firms⁵.

The Survey began in 1986 as a survey of foreign exchange trading and has also covered derivatives since 1995⁶. The 2025 Survey looked at turnover over the single month of April 2025. The Japanese part covered 35 institutions: 12 Japanese banks and similar institutions, 15 foreign banks, 2 Japanese securities firms, and 6 foreign securities firms⁷.

The Survey covers a broad range of institutions once every three years, while the Regular Statistics focus on major participants and put more weight on timely release. Looking at the two together gives a more accurate picture of developments in global financial markets². For the end-June 2025 amounts outstanding in the Survey, the Japanese results are the same as the Regular Statistics, because both cover the same institutions and items⁸. For both statistics, the Bank of Japan compiles and publishes the figures for Japan, and the BIS aggregates the figures from each country and publishes the global results³⁷.

Amounts outstanding measured by notional amount

The amount outstanding is the total of all the trades that financial institutions hold at a given time, and it is measured both as a total of notional amounts and as a total of market values⁹. The notional amount is the base amount used to calculate the cash flows exchanged in a derivatives transaction¹⁰. Consider a hypothetical example in which Bank A enters into an interest rate swap with Company B on a notional amount of 10 billion yen, and Bank A pays a fixed rate of 1%. The fixed interest Bank A pays each year is 100 million yen, but the amount outstanding measured by notional amount includes the full 10 billion yen.

As in this example, the notional amount itself is not exchanged in many interest rate contracts. On the other hand, in some contracts, such as foreign exchange contracts, an amount equal to the notional amount is delivered¹⁰.

The table below shows the amounts outstanding at Japan's major derivatives dealers at end-June 2026¹¹.

The OTC breakdown is by the factor that determines the cash flows (the risk factor). Interest rate contracts are those whose profit or loss is linked to interest rates in a single currency, such as interest rate swaps and interest rate options. Foreign exchange contracts are those whose profit or loss is linked to more than one currency, such as FX swaps and currency swaps. Other categories include equity, linked to stock prices; commodities, linked to commodity prices; and credit, linked to the creditworthiness of companies or countries¹².

The table shows only the main categories, so they do not add up to the total. The Regular Statistics are statistics on OTC derivatives, but the Japanese results also include amounts outstanding of exchange-traded contracts, that is, exchange-traded derivatives.

Amounts outstanding measured by market value

Market value is the amount you get by netting what you will receive from a trade against what you will pay, and converting that difference into present value. In the swap above, suppose that netting what Bank A will receive against what it will pay, and converting the result to present value, gives 200 million yen. Bank A is then a net receiver of 200 million yen, which is called a positive market value. For Company B on the other side, it is a net payment of 200 million yen, which is called a negative market value¹³. How present value is calculated is covered in Present Value and Discount Factors.

In the statistics, the positive and negative market values of each trade are totaled separately and reported. The totals taken before any netting with each counterparty are the gross market values. For the OTC contracts of Japan's major derivatives dealers at end-June 2026, the figures were as shown below¹⁴.

The gross positive market value of USD 1.01 trillion is about 1% of the USD 94.8 trillion in notional amount of OTC contracts at the same date¹⁵. The notional amount is a nominal amount used to calculate payments and does not directly represent the credit risk of derivatives transactions. Positive market value, by contrast, is the amount that may not be received if the counterparty defaults, and it corresponds to the amount exposed to credit risk¹⁶. In the example above, if Company B defaults, Bank A may fail to receive 200 million yen. However, market value changes constantly as interest rates, exchange rates, and other factors move, so the same trade has a different value at different times¹⁶.

The "after netting" row shows positive and negative market values after offsetting them against each counterparty with which a netting agreement is in place¹⁷. Consider a hypothetical example in which, between Bank A and Company B, there is one trade with a positive market value of 200 million yen and another with a negative market value of 150 million yen, both from Bank A's point of view. On a gross basis, the positive value is 200 million yen and the negative value is 150 million yen, but if the two have a netting agreement, only a positive 50 million yen remains after netting. The Bank of Japan considers that actual credit risk is even smaller than the total of positive market values, because financial institutions take collateral and enter into netting agreements¹⁶. The effect of netting and collateral is covered in Risk Reduction through Netting and Collateral.

Figure description

The figure is not a procedure; it shows the order of the quantities to look at. The figures are for the OTC contracts of Japan's major derivatives dealers at end-June 2026, the same values as in the two tables above. The notional lane is the total notional amount used to calculate payments, USD 94.8 trillion. The market value lane shows the gross positive market value before netting with each counterparty, USD 1.01 trillion, and the positive market value after netting with counterparties under a netting agreement, USD 0.35 trillion. The arrows show how the quantity under review narrows: from the notional amount to the positive market value, and then to the value after netting with each counterparty. A calculation does not turn USD 94.8 trillion into USD 1.01 trillion.

Turnover is the volume of trades entered into over a period

Turnover is the total notional amount of trades newly entered into over a period, and it is a different measure from the amount outstanding, which is the total of trades held at a given time⁹. Consider a hypothetical example in which a bank enters into just one five-year interest rate swap with a notional amount of 10 billion yen in April. Turnover for April is 10 billion yen, and if April has 20 business days, average daily turnover is 500 million yen. Because the swap runs for five years, the 10 billion yen notional amount is also included in the amount outstanding at end-June, unless the swap is terminated early.

Figure description

The figure lines up the points at which the interest rate swap above enters turnover, a quantity over a period, and the amount outstanding, a quantity at a point in time. It enters turnover only in April, when it is entered into, and it enters the amount outstanding at a given date if the trade is still held then. The 10 billion yen notional amount of the swap is included in April turnover, and, unless the swap has been terminated, in the amount outstanding at end-June as well.

The Survey measures turnover as the volume over a set period (the single month of April in the 2025 Survey) and compiles it on a locational basis, by the country or region where the trade is entered into⁹. Amounts outstanding, by contrast, are compiled at a point in time on a consolidated basis. For Japan, the consolidated basis includes trades made by the overseas branches, local subsidiaries, and similar offices of Japan's major dealers⁴.

The table below shows turnover in April 2025, all as averages per business day¹⁸¹⁹.

By turnover among countries and regions, Japan ranked 5th in foreign exchange and 7th in interest rate derivatives, and the United Kingdom ranked first in both¹⁹. The Bank of Japan's report gives Japan's "share of the global total" (our translation) as 3.5% for foreign exchange and 2.0% for interest rate derivatives, which do not match the values you get by dividing Japan's figures in the table above by the global totals²⁰.

Foreign exchange turnover combines spot, forwards, FX swaps, currency swaps, and currency options. Interest rate derivatives turnover combines forward rate agreements (FRAs), interest rate swaps, and interest rate options²¹.

Breakdown of interest rate contracts outstanding

The breakdown shows that most of the OTC interest rate contracts held by Japan's major dealers are in US dollars and yen, and that most of them are with central counterparties. Counterparties fall into three groups. Reporting dealers are the institutions that take part in these statistics. Other financial institutions are all financial institutions that do not take part, and central counterparties are included here. The remaining group, non-financial customers, includes ordinary businesses and the government sector²².

Other financial institutions include insurance companies, investment trusts, and pension funds²³. The three counterparty rows in the table below show reporting dealers, central counterparties, and other financial institutions other than central counterparties; the row for non-financial customers is omitted. The breakdown at end-June 2026 is shown below¹¹.

Of the USD 81.9 trillion in interest rate contracts outstanding, US dollars and yen together account for USD 60.1 trillion, or about 73%. Trades with central counterparties amount to USD 62.2 trillion, or about 76%²⁴. The currency and counterparty rows show only the main categories, so they do not add up to USD 81.9 trillion. The three remaining maturity rows add up to USD 82.0 trillion, which differs from USD 81.9 trillion because of rounding.

Points to watch when reading the figures for Japan

The Japanese figures in the Regular Statistics do not show the size of the Tokyo market. They include trades that Japanese institutions entered into at their overseas offices, but do not include trades at the Japanese branches of foreign institutions. The Japanese figures are compiled on a consolidated basis that includes the domestic and overseas branches and local subsidiaries of Japan's major dealers⁴. Turnover in the Survey is on a locational basis, by the country or region where the trade is entered into, and the Japanese part also covers foreign banks and securities firms⁷. Even when figures are labeled "Japan," what they cover differs from one statistic to another.

The Japanese amounts outstanding are not adjusted for double counting of trades between reporting dealers. Consider a hypothetical example in which reporting dealers Bank A and Bank B enter into one trade with each other. That trade appears in both Bank A's report and Bank B's report. The global amounts outstanding that the BIS publishes later are adjusted for this double counting⁵. In the Survey's turnover, too, national figures and the global total are adjusted for double counting in different ways, so adding up the national figures does not give the global total¹⁹.

In the currency breakdown of foreign exchange contracts, each of the two currencies in a trade is counted once. For example, a trade exchanging US dollars for yen appears in both the US dollar column and the yen column. As a result, adding up the figures for each currency gives twice the total amount outstanding of foreign exchange contracts²⁵. The same applies to the currency breakdown of turnover in the Survey²⁶.

The figures are compiled in US dollars⁵. Comparisons of Survey results with past surveys should be read as approximate, because of differences in the institutions covered, in the definitions of items, and in exchange rate movements²⁷. Figures are sometimes corrected after release. Corrections to the Regular Statistics were announced on March 13, 2023, September 10, 2025, and September 10, 2026²⁸. Global and national turnover figures may also be revised later¹⁹.

Notes

1. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」の解説" (Explanation of the Regular Derivatives Market Statistics, in Japanese; March 2020), the table in 4(1) "外為・デリバティブ・サーベイとの相違点" (Differences from the FX and derivatives survey). An English outline is also available: "Outline of "Regular Derivatives Market Statistics"" (September 2020). ↩

2. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ」の解説" (Explanation of the Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity, in Japanese; October 2025), the text and table in 4(1) "デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告との相違点" (Differences from the Regular Derivatives Market Statistics). ↩ ↩²

3. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」の解説" (in Japanese), 1(1) "概要" (Overview) and its notes. ↩ ↩²

4. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」の解説" (in Japanese), 2(1) "調査対象先" (Reporting institutions) and 2(2) "調査方法" (Survey method). ↩ ↩² ↩³

5. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告（日本分集計結果：2026年6月末）参考図表" (in Japanese; September 10, 2026), page 4, "（参考）「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」の概要" (Reference: outline of the Regular Derivatives Market Statistics). English version: "Reference Charts", page 4, "(Reference) Overview of the Regular Derivatives Market Statistics". ↩ ↩² ↩³

6. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ」の解説" (in Japanese), 1(1) "概要" (Overview). ↩

7. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ（2025年4月中 取引高調査）について：日本分集計結果" (in Japanese), page 1, "１．本調査の概要" (1. Outline of the survey). ↩ ↩² ↩³

8. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ（2025年6月末残高調査）について：日本分集計結果" (Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity at end-June 2025: Amounts Outstanding, Japan, in Japanese; September 10, 2025), the opening explanation. English version: "Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity at end-June 2025: Amounts Outstanding, Japan". ↩

9. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ」の解説" (in Japanese), 3(1) "調査項目" (Survey items). ↩ ↩² ↩³

10. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」の解説" (in Japanese), 3(1) 1) "想定元本" (Notional amount). ↩ ↩²

11. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告（2026年6月末）について" (Regular Derivatives Market Statistics in Japan at end-June 2026, in Japanese; September 10, 2026), 1 "デリバティブ取引残高（想定元本）" (Amounts outstanding of derivatives, notional) and 2 "OTC取引残高（想定元本）の内訳" (Breakdown of OTC amounts outstanding, notional). Figures are as of end-June 2026. ↩ ↩²

12. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」の解説" (in Japanese), 3(2) 1) "リスク・ファクター別" (By risk factor). ↩

13. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」の解説" (in Japanese), 3(1) 2) "正の市場価値" (Positive market value) and 3) "負の市場価値" (Negative market value). ↩

14. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」日本分集計結果（2026年6月末）" (Detailed Data for the Regular Derivatives Market Statistics in Japan, end-June 2026, in Japanese; September 10, 2026), Table 6 "OTC取引におけるネッティング考慮前後の市場価値" (Market values of OTC contracts before and after netting). The values are converted from millions of US dollars to trillions of US dollars and rounded to two decimal places. English version: "Detailed Data", Table 6 "Gross market values, current credit exposures and liabilities arising from OTC derivatives". ↩

15. Ratio calculated from the values in the table. ↩

16. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」の解説" (in Japanese), 3(1) 2) "正の市場価値" (Positive market value) and 4(2) "想定元本、正の市場価値と信用リスク・エクスポージャー" (Notional amount, positive market value, and credit risk exposure). ↩ ↩² ↩³

17. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」の解説" (in Japanese), 3(1) 4) "ネッティング考慮後の市場価値" (Market value after netting) and its note. ↩

18. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ（2025年4月中 取引高調査）について：日本分集計結果" (in Japanese), pages 2–3, "２．日本分集計結果（別添１）の主な特徴点" (2. Main features of the results for Japan, Annex 1). ↩

19. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ（2025年4月中 取引高調査）について：日本分集計結果" (in Japanese), page 11, Annex 2 "主要市場の1営業日平均取引高【グローバル分集計結果】" (Average daily turnover in major markets: global results) and its notes 1 and 2. The global and Japanese values are converted to trillions of US dollars and rounded. ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴

20. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ（2025年4月中 取引高調査）について：日本分集計結果" (in Japanese), page 4, "３．グローバル分集計結果（別添２）でみたわが国市場の位置付け" (3. Position of the Japanese market in the global results, Annex 2), and Annex 2 on page 11. The report does not show the value it divides by to get the shares (the denominator). ↩

21. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ（2025年4月中 取引高調査）について：日本分集計結果" (in Japanese), page 1, note 3. ↩

22. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」の解説" (in Japanese), 3(2) 3) "取引相手先別" (By counterparty). ↩

23. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ」の解説" (in Japanese), 3(1) 4) "取引相手先別内訳" (Breakdown by counterparty). ↩

24. Ratios calculated from the values in the table. ↩

25. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "「デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告」日本分集計結果（2026年6月末）" (in Japanese), Table 1 "外国為替関連取引" (Foreign exchange contracts), note 1. English version: "Detailed Data", Table 1 "Foreign exchange derivatives", note 1. ↩

26. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ（2025年4月中 取引高調査）について：日本分集計結果" (in Japanese), page 7, the note to Chart 4 "通貨別取引高（1営業日平均）" (Turnover by currency, daily average). ↩

27. Bank of Japan Financial Markets Department, "外国為替およびデリバティブに関する中央銀行サーベイ（2025年4月中 取引高調査）について：日本分集計結果" (in Japanese), page 2, note 4. ↩

28. Bank of Japan, "デリバティブ取引に関する定例市場報告" (Regular Derivatives Market Statistics page, in Japanese), "訂正のお知らせ" (Notices of corrections). English page: "Regular Derivatives Market Statistics in Japan". ↩